Markets shook in spring 2025. In April, US equity volatility soared following surprise tariff moves and trade tensions — the kind of macro shocks that accelerate uncertainty. Capital Group called mid‑2025 “a period of heightened uncertainty” as tariffs, trade wars, and inflation slowed growth.
When macro shifts happen, what-if scenarios aren’t optional — they’re essential tools for stress-testing your forecasts, and keeping strategy on track.
But most teams stumble on two fronts:
- They often mix up macro and micro scenarios.
- They lack a clear method to use them effectively.
Here’s how to get both right — and use them intentionally.
What-if scenarios: where you need them, how they work
At its core, what-if analysis tweaks assumptions in a base model to explore outcomes. It’s at the heart of scenario planning.
- Sensitivity analysis changes one input at a time.
- Scenario analysis shifts groups of drivers, crafting alternate futures.
Together, they transform finance from retrospective reporting to forward-looking strategy.
Runway makes this easy: build, compare, and share scenarios with a few clicks — all in real time.
Macro vs Micro scenarios: know the difference
Macro Scenarios
They reflect economy-level trends, and things you can’t control — like GDP drops, interest hikes, tariff changes, and supply shocks.
Example: What if GDP falls 2%? How would that hit your SaaS company?
Model it as a slowdown in enterprise buying — maybe ARR drops 15%, and pipelines lengthen.
That’s a macro scenario.
Micro Scenarios
These reflect levers you control — like pricing, hiring, volume, and costs.
Example: What if you discount by 5%?
Volume may rise 12%, but gross margin slides from 75% to 71%. End result = revenue up 6.4%, but thinner profits.
That’s micro — direct, actionable, and often tactical.
Both are essential — macro for annual planning or crisis prep. Micro for pricing strategy, hiring decisions, and tactical plans.
Running what-if scenarios in Runway
Step 1: Build your base case
Build your core model using Runway’s templates or a custom setup.
- Set realistic assumptions — revenue, CAC, gross margin, OPEX, cash burn.
- Make the base reflect where you actually are.
Step 2: Tag assumptions clearly
Tag every assumption in Runway — macro or micro, high-impact or low-impact.
- Macro: bundle things like GDP, industry trends, customer spend.
- Micro: group pricing, volume, costs, hiring.
- Set parent-child hierarchies. For example: parent “Market” covers GDP, spend, competition. Sub-assumptions live inside.
- Use Runway’s filters to drill down anytime.
Step 3: Build and compare live scenarios
Runway lets you define multiple cases, like base, downside, upside, economic downturn. Each gets its own assumptions, but is built on top of the same main scenario.
Compare metrics like runway, cash flow, ARR, EBITDA — side by side, instantly.
Step 4: Capture the entire story (not just the numbers)
- Plans capture additional context, explain why numbers change, and let you change timing by dragging & dropping items along a timeline.
- Driver descriptions let you record comments, rationale and explanations right in your model.
- Activity History shows you who changed what, and when.
Step 5: Update regularly
Refresh with actuals monthly or quarterly (or faster, if needed).
- For macro triggers: Re-run macro scenarios.
- For micro changes: Adjust drivers and watch impact.
Best practices for effective scenario planning
- Keep it simple — 3 to 5 scenarios. Too many diffuse focus.
- Document everything. Versions, assumptions, owners — clarity builds confidence. (Runway’s Activity History and driver descriptions make doing this easy.)
- Focus on what moves the needle. Prioritize your top drivers.
- Stress test extremes. A 30% revenue drop or 50% cost increase uncovers risks fast.
- Keep scenarios current. Update with actuals monthly or quarterly. Forecasting frequency matters (Sourcetable explains how). Quarterly is fine for annual budgets; weekly is a must for cash flow.
- Collaborate cross-functionally. Include Finance, Ops, Sales, Product.
- Share with leadership. Use clear visuals — runway comparison, cash waterfall, scenario delta.
Frequently Asked Questions
What’s the difference between macro and micro what-if scenarios?
- Macro = economy-level shocks (recession hits, inflation jumps, industry gets disrupted).
- Micro = controllable levers (pricing, costs, headcount).
Tag inputs so you can isolate and update each.
How many scenarios should I build ?
Go for 3–5: base, upside, downside, and a stress case. Each one should tell a clear story.
What are the key assumptions for scenario analysis?
- Revenue growth rates
- Gross margin
- Cash burn
They drive the whole model — and your future runway.
Example: Try 10% vs. 20% growth. Higher growth means bigger investment now, better returns later. Lower growth keeps cash safe but limits how big you get.
Use Runway to group these by type — revenue, costs, timing. Easy to track, easy to update.
How often should I update my what-if scenarios?
- Monthly for fast-moving teams.
- Quarterly for stable ones.
- Macro updates as external trends shift (e.g., Fed, tariffs).
Runway keeps your scenarios current. Just connect your data stack, and let Runway handle the rest.
How should I present scenario results?
- Use clear tables, waterfalls, and charts.
- Show the real gaps — months of runway, EBITDA swings, cash flow impact.
- Don’t drown people in detail. Just what matters.
- Example: Compare base and worst case. Maybe base is 18 months of runway, worst is 12. Show the difference visibly.
- Build interactive dashboards. Let people play with your model to see the impact of each decision on your entire business.
Next steps
Markets won’t wait for your next board meeting. You need to test assumptions before they're tested by reality.
Macro scenarios prepare you for what’s out of control, and micro scenarios let you act on what’s in your hands. Runway turns both into strategic clarity — combining numbers, narrative, and versioned reasoning into a single shared model.
Superhuman saw a 50–100X efficiency boost with Runway. 818 Tequila freed up 50+ hours a week with Runway. Book a demo to see how.
Check out our playbook to get scenario planning right — even if you’re just getting started.