High-growth startups often miss revenue targets not because deals don’t close, but because there aren’t enough to chase in the first place. Top sales teams keep roughly 3–5x pipeline coverage. Drop below that, and your forecast stops being predictive—it becomes wishful. The pipeline coverage ratio quietly guides how you hire, how you budget, and how you burn cash. Miss the mark, and you either end up with idle reps—or chaos in the forecast.
This guide breaks down the pipeline coverage ratio—what it means, how to calculate it, and how to use it to plan smarter at your startup.
Understanding pipeline coverage ratio
Pipeline coverage ratio tells you whether your current pipeline can actually support your revenue target for a given period. The math is simple:
Pipeline coverage ratio = Total pipeline value / Revenue target
This is an important metric. The best sales team can’t close deals that aren’t there. If your pipeline is too thin, your forecast isn’t real. If it’s full of unqualified deals, every decision is built on hope, not reality.
When your pipeline's too thin, your forecast becomes wishful thinking. When it's packed with unqualified deals, you're making decisions based on hope instead of data.
For startups, pipeline coverage drives your most critical decisions—how many reps to hire, how long your cash runway lasts, and whether your growth targets are actually achievable.
How to calculate pipeline coverage ratio
Start with the basic formula:
Pipeline coverage ratio = Total pipeline value / Revenue target
If your team has $600,000 in pipeline and a $200,000 quarterly target, you’ve got 3x coverage—three times what you need to hit quota.
Basic ratio calculation
Here’s how to get your raw number:
- Add up each open opportunity in your CRM with an expected close date in your target period.
- Divide by your sales quota for that period.
This treats every deal the same. A 10% probability deal counts as much as a 90% one—which is why weighted pipeline coverage gives you a truer view.
Weighted pipeline coverage
For better accuracy, factor in win probability. Multiply each deal’s value by its probability, then add them up.
Weighted pipeline coverage = sum of (deal value × stage probability) / revenue target
Say you have a $100,000 deal at 30% and a $50,000 deal at 80%. Your weighted pipeline is $70,000 ($30,000 + $40,000), not $150,000.
Most CRMs assign probabilities to each stage. Use them if they reflect reality—or create your own from actual conversion rates.
Qualified pipeline vs. total pipeline
Not all pipeline is created equal. Some teams count only qualified deals—those that pass criteria like confirmed budget, real decision maker, and a clear timeline.
Qualified pipeline gives a truer signal, but it takes process discipline. If reps rush to mark deals qualified, you’re right back to inflated numbers.
Choose what fits your process maturity. Early-stage? Use total pipeline. More established? Go with qualified only.
Why it matters to finance and revenue teams
Pipeline coverage ratio isn’t just for sales—it’s a finance signal.
Finance uses it to confirm revenue forecasts. If sales promises $1M in bookings but only has $2M weighted pipeline at 25% win rate, the math doesn’t add up. You’d need $4M in pipeline for confidence.
Revenue operations relies on coverage to spot bottlenecks. If coverage is low, you need more leads. If coverage is high but conversion lags, tighten qualification or boost capacity.
Pipeline coverage keeps everyone aligned. Sales can’t blame marketing if coverage is healthy, and finance can’t critique forecasts without owning the pipeline data.
The right time window and deals to include
Your sales cycle length defines your tracking window. Monthly cycles? Track coverage each month. Six-month enterprise deals? Watch quarterly or annual numbers.
Let the expected close date anchor every calculation. A deal set to close in Q2 is Q2 coverage—even if you found it last year.
Which deals to include
- All open opportunities with a close date in your target period.
- Exclude deals already won, or lost.
- Optionally, drop deals that haven’t moved in 60+ days.
Stage definitions should be documented and enforced—clean stages mean clean coverage.
Qualification criteria
- Apply a consistent framework. Try BANT (budget, authority, need, timeline) or MEDDIC frameworks.
- Keep it binary. A deal is qualified, or it isn’t.
No gray zones. Every fuzzy deal distorts your pipeline coverage ratio.
How pipeline coverage influences forecasting, hiring, and growth
Pipeline coverage ratio sits at the center of your operating model.
Revenue forecasting
Your coverage ratio shapes forecast accuracy. Building accurate revenue forecasts means knowing what’s in the pipeline and if it matches your conversion rates.
Consistently convert at 25% with 4x coverage? You’ll hit target. Drop to 2x, you’ll miss by half.
Sales capacity planning
Coverage tells you when to hire. If reps have strong coverage and hit quota, you’re ready for more headcount. If coverage is thin, dial up lead generation first.
Sales capacity models need coverage as a key input. Don’t hire based on targets alone. Hire based on pipeline realness.
Burn rate and runway
Pipeline coverage ties to cash. Thin pipeline, lower revenue, runway gets shorter. Plan for different pipeline scenarios. What does runway look like if coverage drops from 4x to 2x?
Growth targets
Big growth targets demand big coverage. To double revenue, fill your pipeline ahead of plan.
- Work backward from targets to required coverage.
- Map from coverage to lead generation needs.
This links every investment—from marketing to hiring—to your goals.
Benchmarks you can use
Coverage needs shift by sales motion and win rate. Here’s what top companies see:
- Enterprise sales: 3–5x coverage (Forecastio)
- Mid-market: 2.5–4x coverage (Narratic)
- SMB outbound: 2.5–3x coverage, 35–45% win rates (Rework)
- SMB inbound: 1.7–2.5x coverage, 45–60% win rates (Rework)
- Expansion and upsell: 1.5–2x coverage, 50–70% win rates (Rework)
These numbers use weighted pipeline. If you’re using raw pipeline, aim even higher.
But don’t copy other companies. Pull your own win rates and build from there. The best ratio is the one that works with your numbers.
Common pitfalls, and how to avoid them
Including unqualified leads
Adding every lead in your CRM? That’s not real pipeline. Set a clear qualification bar. It’s better to see accurate low coverage than a number that tells you nothing.
Not using deal stage probability
Treating all deals equally doesn’t work. Discovery stage is not the same as contract stage. Use weighted calculations for truth.
Comparing across companies
Your 3x coverage and a competitor’s aren’t equal if you run different cycles. Internal trends matter more. Focus there.
Ignoring deal age and velocity
Deals that sit for months rarely close. Track deal age, flag the stale ones, and keep your coverage clean.
Using outdated deal values
Deals change. Scopes shift. Make reps update values, or sync them with quoting tools.
Not adjusting for seasonality
If Q4 drives 40% of revenue, pump up Q4 coverage. Calculate and target coverage for each season. Let history guide you.
Failing to remove stalled deals
Stalled deals bloat your numbers. Implement automatic decay—if deals don’t move, update or close them. Good data drives good decisions.
Calculating pipeline coverage ratio in Runway
Runway plugs into your CRM and handles everything. Set up the logic once and the platform will keep your ratio updated as deals move.
Connect your CRM and import deals
Runway integrates with Salesforce and HubSpot.
- For Salesforce, use Workato quick-start (simple, report-based) or Fivetran (SQL-powered, full objects and fields). After auth, use the "Salesforce Opportunities Quickstart" template to create a database seeded with opportunity fields.
- HubSpot works with Fivetran (recommended) or Workato—the "HubSpot Deal Quickstart" template auto-creates a database.
Import all opportunity data: amount, close date, stage, and probability.
- Workato pulls what's in your CRM report—filters in the report apply to what arrives in Runway. Fivetran can access standard and custom objects and fields.
- You can map deals to a time series on creation date, close date, or contract start date. For pipeline coverage, you'll typically use close date.
Configure your deals database
Runway organizes deals with segments (like stage, owner, region) and drivers (like amount, probability). If you used a Quickstart template, open the prebuilt Deals or Opportunities database. Otherwise, create a new database and configure segments and drivers.
Add columns for the fields you care about: deal ID, name, stage, amount, close date, and probability. These make coverage calculation easy and consistent. You can add columns via "+" → Number driver or Date driver—columns can be shown as time series and have default formulas.
Define stage win probabilities
If your CRM has a Probability field, use it directly. If not, create a "Stage Win Rate" number driver in your Deals database and set a default forecast formula using IF() and Stage dimension values. Map win rates to each stage:
if(Stage == 'Closed Won', 1, if(Stage == 'Commit', 0.9, if(Stage == 'Best Case', 0.6, if(Stage == 'Pipeline', 0.3, 0.1))))
Runway's formulas make this flexible.
Calculate weighted amount per deal
Add a "Weighted Amount" number driver to your Deals database. Set the default forecast formula:
- If Probability is 0–100 in your CRM:
Amount * (Probability / 100) - If using Stage Win Rate (0–1):
Amount * Stage Win Rate
New deals inherit this by default, so they're automatically included.
Build monthly weighted pipeline
Create an unsegmented driver called "Weighted Pipeline (Monthly)." Set the forecast formula as a sum of Weighted Amount from your Deals database with filters:
- Date = This month on Weighted Amount
- Close Date.Month is This month
- Stage not in ['Closed Won', 'Closed Lost']
Add these via the filter menu on the database reference pill. Runway's date filters update automatically each month.
If you need to segment pipeline by region, rep, or product, create a segmented version and use This Segment to dynamically match Deals rows.
Set your bookings target
Define monthly bookings targets based on quota and your capacity plan. Runway's quota attainment guide walks you through building a Sales Team database, annual quota logic, ramp logic, and a bookings capacity and attainment model that yields realistic adjusted bookings capacity per segment.
Create a "Bookings Target (Monthly)" driver and set the forecast formula to sum your bookings capacity or target driver. Ensure the date range on the reference is "This month."
Calculate the coverage ratio
Create an unsegmented driver called "Pipeline Coverage Ratio (Monthly)." Set the forecast formula:
Weighted Pipeline (Monthly) / Bookings Target (Monthly)
Format as a multiple (like 3.2x) or percent—whatever you prefer. This updates as deals move, new opportunities come in, or targets shift. No manual edits required.
Get quarterly or rolling views
Runway lets you see pipeline coverage by quarter, month, or rolling period. Two approaches:
- Use driver table rollups to show QTD or quarterly sums, then view the ratio at the rolled-up level.
- Or create dedicated "Weighted Pipeline (Quarter)" and "Bookings Target (Quarter)" drivers by summing over a quarterly date range, then divide.
Track trends over time and get both short-term and long-term pipeline health at a glance.
Visualize and validate your data
Add a Drivers table block to a Page and include:
- Weighted Pipeline (Monthly)
- Bookings Target (Monthly)
- Pipeline Coverage Ratio (Monthly)
Turn on quarterly and annual rollups if you want them. Use scenario comparison to test different pipeline or target assumptions—like what happens if your win rate drops or you add more reps.
Always spot-check a few months by drilling into references to confirm deals included have Close Date in the month, aren't closed, and that Probability or Stage Win Rate is correctly applied. Get confidence your numbers really match pipeline health.
Variations and quick tips
- Unweighted coverage: Replace the numerator with sum of Amount (exclude closed stages).
- Probability source: Prefer CRM Probability if it's maintained; otherwise use Stage Win Rate IF() logic.
- Time anchoring: If your team defines pipeline differently (like by created date buckets), switch the filter to Created Date. Runway supports mapping deals by different dates.
- Default formulas: Use default column formulas for repeatable logic (like Weighted Amount) so new deals are automatically included.
Runway keeps your coverage ratio tied to financial models. As pipeline changes, so do forecasts, hiring plans, and cash projections—in real time.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do we account for uncertainty in pipeline coverage ratio (not just a single x-number)?
Use confidence bands. Convert your stage win rates into distributions (like beta priors), run a quick Monte Carlo on deal outcomes, and report P10/P50/P90 coverage. Aim your plan and budgeting off P50, and hold contingency against P10.
What's the right way to treat slippage, renewals, and multi-currency deals in pipeline coverage ratio?
Start by defining a slip policy—for example, auto-move close dates more than 15 days to the next period. Separate your new business pipeline from expansion and renewal pipelines, and give each distinct win rates. Normalize all amounts using monthly FX rates before you sum, so coverage isn't distorted by currency swings.
How do we keep pipeline coverage ratio "clean" without manual hygiene work?
Automate your decay rules. Down-weight or exclude deals with no stage change or activity signal beyond N days. Reconcile opportunity amounts with quotes and CPQ nightly. Auto-reclassify stages when required fields—like budget, authority, or timeline—are missing.
Which platform can automate pipeline coverage and tie it to hiring capacity, bookings targets, and cash runway without spreadsheets?
Runway. It ingests your CRM (Salesforce or HubSpot via Workato or Fivetran), models weighted and qualified pipeline with reusable formulas, and links those drivers directly to bookings capacity, headcount plans, and cash runway. When coverage changes, it flows through your entire plan automatically.
Put pipeline coverage to work
Pipeline coverage ratio is your early warning system. It tells you if the plan you’re running can actually deliver. Track it, clean it, and tie it back to hiring, marketing, and cash.
Runway automates pipeline coverage tracking and connects it to your broader financial plan. As pipeline shifts, so do your forecasts, headcount plans, and cash runway—in real time.
Ready to see how? Get started with Runway today.